A little over a week ago, we shared predictions about likely outcomes following Google’s adtech antitrust loss. We aligned with other industry insiders on Google’s divestiture of its supply-side adtech assets (and advocated for DV360, though less likely). We also predicted an accelerated end for Chrome third-party cookies.
However, less than 24 hours after publishing our predictions, Google abruptly announced its plans to halt third-party cookie deprecation—whether by force or by choice.
Taken at face value, this feels like a retreat. But in our view, this isn’t nearly the end of the story. Instead, Google’s latest announcement represents a strategic chess move in their high-stakes regulatory game.
A High-Stakes Chess Game: Privacy vs Antitrust
Tuesday’s “just kidding” announcement is Google’s logical next move in a carefully plotted decision tree—the “if we lose” scenario—intentionally crafted to maximize negotiating leverage by pitting privacy and antitrust regulators against each other.
Privacy regulators have long sought the demise of third-party cookies, labeling this ubiquitous tracking infrastructure a profound privacy hazard. By walking back cookie deprecation, Google sends a clear message: without Google’s publisher-side adtech stack, privacy regulators lose their primary leverage to enforce cookie changes. Said differently, without the apparent anti-competitive conflict between Chrome and Google’s adtech business, Google’s supposed concession becomes a veiled threat—highlighting to privacy regulators that their most potent negotiating chip is contingent upon Google maintaining its publisher-side tech.
Why Chrome Matters More Than Cookies
Why would Google deploy this strategy? Because simultaneously, Google is deeply concerned about potentially losing Chrome—a likely remedy from Judge Amit Mehta in the landmark U.S. search monopoly case. The looming threat of Chrome’s divestiture—especially when combined with the loss of supply-side adtech assets—could fundamentally alter Google’s competitive position in digital advertising.
Here’s the chessboard setup: Google can now negotiate behind the scenes using cookies as a powerful pawn. To privacy regulators, Google might whisper, “We’ll commit to reinstating cookie deprecation—either unilaterally or with a universal opt-out plan—if you help us retain Chrome.” Such a move provides privacy regulators a publicly visible victory, while Google retains its critical competitive asset—Chrome—and, by extension, an alternative pathway to sustaining its dominance in digital advertising.
You might wonder, “If Google is forced to sell Chrome, wouldn’t new owners also deprecate cookies anyway?” Yes, that’s probable—but it’s not guaranteed. Google’s strategy hinges precisely on this uncertainty: regulators may prefer Google’s legally-binding commitments to immediate cookie deprecation over rolling the dice with future Chrome ownership.
The Match Isn’t Over
Ultimately, Google’s current cookie-maintenance stance is clearly a red herring. Driven by years of anticipation for a cookie-less future, the digital advertising industry has already made significant adaptations. Marketers, publishers, and technology platforms (including ours at Symitri) have decisively moved toward privacy-forward, identity-responsible solutions. Alternative online identifiers are already filling the cookie void, further undermining Google’s implied threat. These developments reinforce our belief that Google’s cookie continuation announcement is merely tactical—not a genuine strategic reversal.
In short, Google’s recent cookie decision isn’t backtracking—it’s strategy. It’s leverage. And it’s another clear example of Google expertly maneuvering the pieces on a chessboard where privacy and antitrust regulators are the ones truly in check.
Stay tuned. The match isn’t over yet.
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